Friday, January 1, 2016

I see big trouble ahead in Venezuela on January 5

As of today the Venezuelan high court for electoral issues has barred all 4 winners (three opposition candidates and one Chavez candidate) of the Assembly vote in the remote lightly populated Amazonas State from being sworn in on Monday and is entertaining 9 other challenges, all against oposition candidates . Also, Assembly president Cabello has seated a parliament of the Communes which was authorized in 2009 but never activated till now. President Maduro increased the bolivar denominated budgets of the Communes 66% in 2015. This probably didn't track the inflation rate that the government stopped publishing in November of 2014.

"We are in the presence of absolute violation of the rule of law," said opposition spokesman Simon Calzadilla.  "But I want you to know the people of the PSUV that on January 5 112 deputies proclaimed by the CNE, accompanied by millions of Venezuelans who will be present around the NA will swear us and we'll enforce the decision of a people. "

Meanwhile the outlaw anti government website dolartoday reports that a Chavez collective, allegedly an armed "paramilitary " that's government financed is urging Chavistas to block the entrances to the National Assembly On January 5th.

Paramilitary FUNDED BY THE SYSTEM: Collective "La Piedrita" called to take the AN 5E

I wish I knew what the outcome in Venezuela  going to be.  The short term looks bleak. The food lines are not just annoyances. People scramble hither tither and yon searching for eggs, milk, flour, meat, medicines.  It takes ten minimum wages to meet the basic needs of a family of five, were these items to be found. Around 60 percent of the economic activity is in the formal sector. Forty percent of those workers are getting minimum wage.

The government is facing the possibility that two senior Generals of the National Guard are going to be indicted by prosecutors in the US for drug trafficking and money laundering.  Three well connected Venezuelan nationals are already locked up in US jails facing criminal charges for alleged drug trafficking and money laundering and bribery in the case of one of them. This all is likely to become more serious and involve more high ranking and plugged Venezuelans. So, I remember Noriega and worry about a Panama scenario with US and or OAS armed intervention under the pretext of fighting the drug war and corruption. 

Exhausted,  hungry and demoralized people who await text messages to learn where a carton of eggs is to be found are doubtfull candidates for becoming  grassroots community activists.

Marrea Socialista,  a left current that was expelled from the PSUV by administrative action, claims that around $259,000,000,000 have been embezzled from the patrimony of the Venezuelan people. Upcoming foreign debt repayment due exceed reserves.  

It just doesn't make it to complain about the economic war, which is raging between capital and labor everywhere on earth, and is being waged against all commodity depending nations, even Canada and Australia. When you've been the government for 16 years and had a ten year boom when money was everywhere food security and physical security shold be the norm. People wanted Chavez to begin with to defeat the economic war or at least take effective defensive measures.

A big crisis over the swearing in of the National Assembly is looming on January 5, this Monday.

The tragedy is that over 60 percent of Venezuelans identify with Chavez but a sizable number of them lost heart after years of lines, shortages, inflation and inept corrupt government that as of today has no plan that's visible. Lest I forget, 250,000 homicides in a country of 30,000,000 - the government didn't take charge last night. They have had some time to work on developing agriculture and doing job one- giving workers physical security.

There's nothing for me to do but hope that the real Chavistas,  not the plugged ones, step up and are able to take charge.